“A Crisis Like No Other”: IMF Sees Even Deeper Global Recession, Warns Markets Disconnected From Reality | Zero Hedge
In the latest revision to the IMF’s economic outlook published this morning, the fund warns that the world is facing “a crisis like no other”, and now expects global growth to shrink -4.9% in 2020, 1.9% below the April 2020 forecast of -3.0%.
The COVID-19 pandemic has had a more negative impact on activity in the first half of 2020 than anticipated, the IMF said, adding that the recovery is projected to be more gradual than previously forecast. In 2021 global growth is projected at 5.4% down from 5.8%, a number which will also be revised lower, with China’s expected 1.0% growth (down from 1.2%) the big wildcard.
As shown in the table below, the IMF has made the following GDP revisions for 2020:
- US -8.0%, down from -6.1%
- China 1.0%, down from -1.2%
- Euro Area -10.2%, down from -7.5%
- India: -4.5%, down from +1.9%
- Japan -5.8%, down from -5.2%
- Canada -8.4%, down from -6.2%
- Latin America: -9.4%, down from -5.2%
India suffered the biggest downward GDP revision from the April forecasts, with a 4.5% contraction now expected, compared with a prior projection of a 1.9% expansion.