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Tracking the Tropics: Invest 98-L now has 90% chance for tropical development – WTSP
Francesco Abbruzzino, The Uncensored Report, LLC
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 100 AM EST Mon Nov 7 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Southwestern Atlantic: Recent satellite-derived wind data and reports from a NOAA buoy indicate that the center of a low pressure system located more than 300 miles northeast of the southeastern Bahamas is becoming better defined, and the system is producing an area of gale-force winds well to the east of its center. In addition, the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is beginning to show signs of organization. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a subtropical or tropical storm is expected to form later today or tonight while moving slowly northwestward over the southwestern Atlantic. The system is then forecast to turn westward and west-southwestward on Tuesday and Wednesday, approaching and moving near the northwestern Bahamas and the east coast of Florida, where additional development is possible. Regardless of development, the risk continues to increase for a prolonged period of coastal flooding, tropical-storm-force winds, heavy rainfall, rough surf and rip currents, and beach erosion along the southeastern United States coast, the Florida east coast, and portions of the central and northwestern Bahamas during much of the upcoming week. Interests in those areas should continue to monitor the progress of this system as tropical storm, hurricane, and storm surge watches could be required for a portion of these areas later today. Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service and in products from your local weather office. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. 2. Central Subtropical Atlantic: A well-defined area of low pressure located about 650 miles east of Bermuda continues to produce gale-force winds, but the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is displaced to the east of the low's center due to strong upper-level winds. Upper-level winds are expected to remain unfavorable for development while the system moves northward and then northeastward at about 10 mph, but a short-lived tropical storm could still form later today or on Tuesday before the low dissipates and merges with a cold front. Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php Forecaster Berg