Photo: Gage Skidmore, Creative commons, flickr

 

 

Will Black and Latino voters deliver another “Trump miracle” in 2020? The numbers suggest it could happen…

 

Could it be possible that President Trump has one more miracle up his sleeve?  At this point, many Democrats are anticipating a Joe Biden landslide on Election Day even though his own campaign manager admits that the “inflated national public polling numbers” should not be trusted.   The truth is that both campaigns know that this is going to be a tight race that comes right down to the wire, and there are two key groups of voters that have traditionally been heavily Democratic that could end up swinging the election to Trump.  The Biden campaign has been counting on Black and Latino voters to vote like they normally do, but recent numbers indicate that may not happen this time around.

For example, Tom Del Beccaro has pointed out that a survey that was conducted by Rasmussen in September showed that Trump had an approval rating of 45 percent among the Black community…

 

In September, according to polling done by Rasmussen, Trump’s approval rating among African Americans reached 45%. Keep in mind that President Trump only received 8% of the Black vote in 2016. If Trump received just 16% of the Black vote this November, let alone an even higher number, that would all but secure states like Michigan for Trump.

 

In addition to Michigan, a dramatic shift in the Black vote could also help Trump win the critical swing state of Pennsylvania, and I will discuss that more below.

 

But first let’s talk about the movement that we are seeing among Latino voters.  If you can believe it, one recent survey actually had Trump leading among Latino voters in the state of Florida

 

Trump could well receive a historic level of support from Latino Voters in 2020. In Florida, a NBC/Marist poll had Trump leading among Latinos 50% to 46% over Biden, whereas, in 2016, Hillary won among Latinos in Florida 62% to 35%. That would be a 15% swing toward Trump if it held up on Election Day.

 

After the first debate between Biden and Trump, a Telemundo poll showed Trump winning the debate overwhelmingly 66% to 34%. Snap media polls tend to reflect the sentiment of their viewers. Thus, it is no surprise that CNN viewers said Biden won the debate. The fact that Telemundo viewers decisively picked Trump as the winner, along with polls like those cited above in Florida, portend Trump getting the highest ever Latino support of any Republican presidential candidate.

 

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