Tracking the Tropics: Tropical Storm Kirk strengthens, keeping an eye on wave in the Caribbean  

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Depression Joyce, located over the central Atlantic Ocean, and on 
Tropical Storm Kirk, located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean.

1. Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the southwestern 
Caribbean Sea are associated with a trough of low pressure. 
Environmental conditions could support some gradual development of 
this system, and a tropical depression could form over the next 
several days while it moves generally northwestward over the 
northwestern Caribbean Sea and the southern Gulf of Mexico. 
Interests along the U.S. Gulf Coast should continue to monitor the 
progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL91):
Satellite wind data indicate that a broad area of low pressure has 
formed in association with a tropical wave located a few hundred 
miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands. Showers and thunderstorms 
continue to gradually increase in association with the system, and 
environmental conditions appear conducive for further development. A 
tropical depression is very likely to form during the next few days 
while it moves slowly westward over the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Reinhart