The latest on #Sally, which is in the Gulf
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently upgraded Hurricane Paulette and Tropical Depression Rene, both located over the central Atlantic Ocean, on Tropical Storm Sally, centered over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, and on Tropical Depression Twenty, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic. 1. A surface trough over the west-central Gulf of Mexico is producing limited shower activity. While some slow development of this system is possible, strong upper-level winds associated with Tropical Storm Sally will probably limit the chances of tropical cyclone formation through Monday. The disturbance is forecast to move southwestward and then southward over the west-central and southwestern Gulf of Mexico through the next few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. 2. Showers and thunderstorms located near and west of the Cabo Verde Islands are associated with a broad area of low pressure. Environmental conditions support some additional development, and a tropical depression could form over the far eastern tropical Atlantic during the next couple of days while the system moves slowly west-northwestward. By mid-week, however, upper-level winds should become less conducive for development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. 3. A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa around mid-week. Some gradual development of the system will be possible thereafter as the disturbance moves slowly westward over the far eastern tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Twenty are issued under WMO header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Twenty are issued under WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5. Forecaster Stewart
4AM Sun: #Sally stronger with 50 mph winds. Track shifts slightly west. Hurricane & Storm Surge Warnings & Flash Flood Watch for coastal MS.
Most likely landfall for Sally's center is LA/MS by Tuesday, now up to cat 2 strength. Can't rule out AL landfall. Models quite spread. pic.twitter.com/Ih0PV6HGbC
— Wesley Williams (@WesWilliamsII) September 13, 2020
This is not good. @wdsu #nola #lawx #Sally pic.twitter.com/axfEnmYcgq
— Margaret Orr (@MargaretOrr) September 13, 2020
#Louisiana declares a state of emergency as Gulf Coast braces for Tropical Storm Sally https://t.co/40GLwueW3i my grandma was a #Sally and trust me nobody dared messed with Ms-Mrs #SallyMae
— shirley aguilera (@shirleyaguilera) September 13, 2020
HWRF forecast for 2am. I won’t be up then but it already looks pretty similar to what the 18z was painting not a great sign. Convection not quite as spread out but still similar. And will probably spread out more by 2am. It’s weird how good HWRF has been with IR forecast. #Sally pic.twitter.com/BLhoISrNrz
— BGWX (@BradyBGWX) September 13, 2020